As the 2024 presidential election nears, the CivicScience Election Mindset Tracker is continuously monitoring shifts among the attitudes, opinions, and behaviors of the American electorate. How is the political climate impacting consumer well-being, economic outlook, and trust in American institutions? How closely are people following election news and what impact is that having? What are the top issues that matter to voters? These are just some of the questions that CivicScience is answering, going far beyond typical political horse race polling to predict how the election is impacting people, markets, and the economy at large.
Here are just three insights from the latest edition of the report:
1. Most Americans want candidates commit to at least one presidential debate.
After a period of uncertainty, Joe Biden and Donald Trump have recently agreed to go head-to-head in two presidential debates this June and September, representing the first time since 1988 that the Commission on Presidential Debates will not oversee the debates. Data show the tradition of presidential debates is important to the electorate – 77% of U.S. adults agree Joe Biden and Donald Trump should commit to at least one debate.
Even so, additional data show that most adults admit the debates are unlikely to have an impact on how they vote. However, a certain percentage of partisan voters are likely to defect to the other side (liberals who will vote for Trump, conservatives who will vote for Biden), which will be key in swing states that will ultimately determine the election. An analysis of over 1,000 consumer segments reveals who these voters are most likely to be and how they are likely to vote come November. Get the details in the Consumer Mindset Tracker.
2. Disinterest in political news grows.
Attention to political news declined in April after the two candidates clinched their party’s nominations. Disinterest in political news also accompanies more than half of the U.S adult population feeling ‘exhausted’ by American politics, an increase over last month. On the other hand, attention to sports news rebounded last month.
Weigh In: Have you ever experienced a sense of political fatigue after a major election / campaign cycle?
3. More Americans are focused on reproductive rights as an election issue.
When it comes to social issues among the electorate that will factor into voting, crime is at the top of the list. However, concern over reproductive rights as an election issue saw the largest change from month to month, increasing more than three points. The spike in concern is likely reflective of ongoing restrictions to reproductive rights across the country, including abortion bans or greater limitations on abortion access in 21 states, efforts to reclassify mifepristone, and birth control access moving further into political dialogue.
To learn more about how you can access the full data plus a wealth of additional election-focused insights available each month in the Election Mindset Tracker, click here.
